هل هناك معدل أمثل للائتمان نسبة الى الناتج المحلي الإجمالي

Abstract

The main objective of this research is to analyze the relationship between domestic credit and economic growth in Jordan. The study utilizes the most recent available annual time series data covering the period 1980–2023, extracted from the World Bank database. An econometric model is developed based both on the classical theory of growth and the non-linear inverted U-shaped Armey curve. Considering the results of stationarityand cointegration tests, the study uses advanced econometrics methods, namely fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR), to estimate the model parameters. The novelty of the research stems from being an applied econometric study to deal with a critical relationship between domestic credit and economic growth in the Kingdom of Jordan. The empirical findings of the study lend support to the Armey’s curve hypotheses: an inverted U-shape link between the total domestic credit to GDP ratio and real economic growth. The empirical results indicate to 60% as the optimum domestic creditto GDP ratio in Jordan.Considering these findings, the study recommends policymakers in the central bank of Jordan to plan the ratio of domestic credittoward its optimum point to maximize economic growth and enhance the overall welfare of Jordanian