إشكالية تنويع الصادرات وأثرها على النمو الاقتصادي في الجزائر

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between export diversification and economic growth in Algeria over the period 1990–2023, using the Fourier Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) methodology, which allows the identification of both short- and long-run dynamic relationships while accounting for nonlinear structural fluctuations in the time series. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used as an indicator of economic growth, while total exports (EXPORT) serve as the main variable to measure the impact of export diversification. The results reveal the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the two variables, indicating that an increase in exports leads to a rise in GDP. Although the effect is positive, it remains relatively weak and limited. The findings emphasize the need to strengthen export diversification policies beyond the hydrocarbon sector by developing manufacturing industries and high value-added services, as these measures contribute to achieving sustainable growth and reducing the vulnerability of the Algerian economy to oil price fluctuations.