العلاقة السببية بين سعر الصرف واحتياطي الصرف الأجنبي في الجزائر باستخدام نموذج تصحيح الخطأ Vecm للفترة 1990-2020

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the causal relationship between the exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves in Algeria in the long and short terms during the period 1990-2020, using the VECM error correction model for the period 1990-2020. The study concluded that there is a statistically negative and moral effect - in the short term - of the foreign exchange reserve on the exchange rate in Algeria, where the higher the exchange reserve by 1%, the higher the exchange rate of the dinar against the dollar by 0.11%. The foreign exchange rate in Algeria, where whenever the exchange reserve rises by 1%, the exchange rate of the dinar against the dollar decreases by 0.16%.