السببية بين العرض النقدي والنمو الاقتصادي الحقيقي في الجزائر

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the causal relationship between the money supply (M2) and the real economic growth rate (RGDP) of Algeria from 1990 to 2022. Additionally, it aims to validate the assumptions of Keynesian theory and Friedman's monetary theory. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test showed that M2 was stationary at the level, while RGDP was non-stationary, and stationary in their first difference. It turns out that there is a positive relationship when you apply cointegration analysis using the two-step Angel-Granger model, ensure that the residuals are stationary to avoid spurious estimation, and use the error correction model ECM. A causality test was done on the two variables in both the short and long term. The results showed that there was a significant bidirectional effect between the change in real GDP and the money supply of less than 10%. This validates the Keynesian concept that augmenting the money supply can directly impact the economy and the production.