السيناريو المستقبلي لاستهلاك طاقة الكهرباء والغاز في الجزائر-دراسة قياسية تنبؤية

Abstract

The energy sector in Algeria consider revising vital due to its role in achieving growth and stability. In this research study, we identify the reality of electric energy consumption and that of gas. Because those are the two most used energies in Algeria. We develop a standard predictive model for the consumption of the two energies in Algeria, where we relied on the methodology of the Box–Jenkins method, using integrated autoregressive, moving average (ARIMA) time series models to identify the future consumption of the two sectors based on of the total consumption chains of the two energies from 1996 to 2020. The study concluded that the best model for the total electricity consumption is ARIMA (1.1) and the best gas consumption model is ARIMA (0.1) According to these two models, the consumption of both energies will continue to increase in the years to come.