النماذج الهيكلية للكشف عن مخاطر التخلف عن السداد

Abstract

Through this study, we aim to analyze the basic characteristics of four basic models in measuring default risk and predicting the probability of risk. The most important models were selected from famous companies: Merton model, kmv model, Credit metrics model, Creditrisk+ model, by addressing the various theoretical frameworks on which each model is based The kmv model has also been applied to companies listed on the Dubai Stock Exchange that are active in various sectors based on the analytical approach. The study reached a set of results as follows: Structural models are considered the winning card for institutions today, as they allow accurate risk hedging ratios, the ability and effectiveness of the kmv model in detecting default risks and helping managers take appropriate and timely corrective measures, as it fulfills its basic assumption within Dubai Stock Exchange in predicting the probability of two companies under study defaulting